What is El Niño?
El Niño is a regularly recurring climate pattern with global implications, historically linked to drought in East Africa and the Horn of Africa, torrential rains or drought in areas of Central America, and other extreme weather events (1).
Researchers are predicting a “super” El Niño in 2026—a non-scientific term used to describe a highly intense and strong El Niño event. Potentially kicking off between the spring and autumn, it’s certain to leave global environmental challenges in its wake. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, El Niño formation has already begun in the tropical Pacific Ocean on June 11, 2026 (2).
Our warming planet is already experiencing severe, long-lasting heat waves and wildfires. So, is a potentially strong or “super” El Niño year likely to lead to even more global brushfires and wildfires?
What are the phases of El Niño?
El Niño does not occur every year; it typically happens irregularly every two to seven years and does not follow a predictable schedule. Instead, it is part of a natural cycle known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which includes warm (El Niño), cold (La Niña), and neutral phases.
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El Niño
Spanish for "the little boy", El Niño is the opposite event to its “girlish” counterpart, La Niña. Rather than blowing the trade winds west, winds are weaker and the Pacific Ocean’s surface temperature is much warmer.
No two La Niña and El Niño events are likely to have precisely the same impact on a given region, and event lengths can vary. For example, one rare La Niña weather event lasted three years from July 2020 until March 2023.
La Niña
La Niña, or "the little girl" in Spanish, strengthens the trade winds in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, pushing warmer air towards Asia. This means that colder water rises to the surface and can have several regional effects for the Americas; warmer winters and more drought in the American South, a greater chance of hurricanes forming, rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada.
In Southeast Asia and Australia, La Niña usually heralds wetter conditions (3).
Neutral Phase
What happens in a neutral phase? Normally, warm water in the Pacific Ocean is carried west by trade winds, from South America towards Asia.
How El Niño might influence wildfires
Although nothing is guaranteed when a climate event occurs, there are common, recurring weather impacts that are forecastable. And like La Niña, an El Niño climate event has a meaningful impact on global weather—including a noteworthy, predicted increase in wildfire risk in some regions.
Australia and Southeast Asia: More smoke and bush fires
Weather forecasters and Australian Meteorologists are predicting increased drought and decreased rainfall across southern and eastern Australia. In 2023, Australia experienced it’s driest 3-month period yet, from August to October, due to severe El Nino conditions. Dried out vegetation and extreme heat could create ideal conditions for an increase in bush fires during Australia’s El Nino season, with stronger impacts on Australia’s eastern coast (4).
Regions in southeastern Asia and northeastern China are already experiencing drought and wildfire conditions. The early start of seasonal droughts in combination with the rapid spread of wildfires could become a harmful mixture, leading to regional air quality degradation and elevated pollutant levels (5)(6).
Latin America: Flooding and drought
Previous El Niño years have brought extreme weather to Latin American countries with a wide range of environmental hazards, varying from flooding to severe drought conditions.
Flood patterns are more common on South America’s west coast, while the Amazon and north-east Brazil are more prone to drought. And though central Chile would normally receive more rain during an El Niño, the impact could be reversed due to climate change-related rainfall reductions.
If drought occurs, Chile and the Amazon could be potential hotspots for severe wildfires in 2026.
Pacific Northwest: Elevated wildfire risk
The U.S. and Canadian Pacific Northwest are generally drier and warmer during El Niño years (7). If vegetation in the Pacific Northwest dries out under extreme heat, there is an increased risk of wildfires in the region. But those conditions may not be in place until later in the summer.
The U.S. National Interagency Fire Center is estimating “above-normal” temperatures and fire hazard conditions in portions of Washington, Oregon, Northern California, Texas, South Carolina, and North Carolina between July and September 2026. Some states may experience last effects until October, depending on the intensity level of El Niño (8).
El Niño has also caused patterns of warmer weather and drought conditions for states across the Midwestern and Southeastern regions of the U.S., such as Utah, Nevada, Ohio, Tennessee, and Florida. Numerous wildfires occurred in Utah and Nevada starting in June, creating prolonged smoke exposure and unhealthy air quality conditions.
South Asia: Monsoon disruption
Changing weather patterns can impact India’s monsoon season (9). During past El Niño years, India experienced below average rainfalls and, occasionally, severe drought.
Uncontrolled agricultural burns and forest fires could be intensified by dry conditions, a serious concern given that India has shortcomings in fire preparedness. In 2021, India and Nepal experienced record forest fires that were difficult to control due to limited firefighting resources (10).
Southwestern and Southern U.S.: Wetter conditions likely to prevail
While the Pacific Northwest may experience an increase in wildfire activity during 2026, the opposite may be the case in the American Southwest – at least for the early summer. The risk for significant wildfires is forecast to be normal to below normal.
El Niño usually brings more rainfall towards the south of the United States, ranging from California to several southern states. Southern California has already experienced a significant wet season that lasted until April – the rain has reduced the amount of potential wilderness fuel for wildfires.
While active wildfires are low, states with increased rainfall and moisture could experience elevated mold spores and flooding risks, especially regions with improper infrastructure and inadequate drainage.
However, if the rain doesn’t materialize, excess vegetation growth could turn to kindling and the region could experience more wildfires as excess vegetation dries out.
In a bit of good news, the Atlantic hurricane season will likely be weakened, with fewer predicted named storms and hurricanes likely to occur.
The takeaway
Understanding regularly recurring climate events and their frequently associated chain of regional weather events, such as El Niño, can help prepare us for severe, adverse health risks from wildfire smoke. Even if trends suggest there will be fewer wildfires in one region, that doesn’t protect that region’s residents from drifting smoke, even continents away.
